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Bitcoin VS Gold VS S&P 500

January 24
11:36 2023

How does gold and its digital competitor Bitcoin relate to each other?

Gold is a traditional store of value, while Bitcoin from a conventional standpoint is highly risky. Even though the latter was nicknamed “digital gold,” we can see from the chart below that it does not act like one.

Gold BTC USM2 Real IR Quarterly

Source: TradingView
In the above quarterly chart, I combined 5 items:

The gold price is in black bars on scale A. The Bitcoin price is in orange bars on scale B. The U.S. money supply indicator M2 (M2) is in histogram on scale C. The red line represents the U.S. real interest rate (RIR) on scale D. There is a 2-year correlation coefficient of Bitcoin to gold (blue) in the sub-chart.

Both prices of gold and Bitcoin were moving higher with the M2 which has shown the extensive work of the “printing press”. The impact of the pumped money supply can be seen clearly in the dynamics of the RIR, which has fallen in the deep negative zone.

Gold has peaked five quarters ahead of the M2 climax point. However, following the repeated attempt to retest the all-time high, the price has nearly reached it, and the top coincides with M2 as well as with the bottom of the RIR.

Bitcoin has hit the all-time high close to the extreme of M2 and bottom of RIR with amazing accuracy.

While the move was in sync, the real reasons behind it were quite different. Gold buyers were trying to save the value of money. Bitcoin enthusiasts used cheap money to take a risk.

When the “printing press” stopped and M2 collapsed, both the top metal and main coin weakened at different speeds. The rapid growth of RIR forced by the Fed has caused more damage to Bitcoin than to gold: -68% vs -22% since the bottom of RIR. This confirms the speculative nature of the main crypto. This is evident in the next chart as well.

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