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Opinion: Why this presidential election is a plus for stocks – MarketWatch

July 26
14:13 2016

Here’s some good news from an unlikely source: The Presidential Election Year Cycle.

After four quarters in a row in which this cycle was negative, it turned positive as of the beginning of July.

The reason I say this comes from an unlikely source: Most followers of this cycle know that the strongest year of the four-year cycle is the third. Many forget that the last six months of presidential election years are also strong, on average — unlike the first six months.

The chart below paints the picture. The quarter in which we are currently has experienced an average Dow gain of 4.6% since 1896, when the Dow was created. The average across all quarters of all years is 1.9%. This difference is statistically significant at the 90% level but not the 95% level.

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